An effective extension to the Kyoto Protocol to combat climate change will depend on the EU, US and China resolving key differences.
The Kyoto Protocol is the world’s most ambitious attempt at tackling global climate change. It was agreed in 1997, came into force in February 2005, its first phase runs to 2008-2012 and so far it has proved at best partly successful. As negotiations begin for extending the Protocol beyond 2012, what should we hope for and what can we expect?
Kyoto Protocol Targets and Achievements
The central plank of the Kyoto Protocol is a commitment by 40 developed countries to reduce their combined greenhouse gas emissions to five percent below the 1990 level.
While some countries already achieved their emissions reduction targets the overall picture is not encouraging. After declines in emissions for special reasons in the early 1990s, emissions from the 40 countries have risen since 1994. Emissions from developing countries, which the Protocol does not commit to reduction targets, have risen even faster, probably already making China the leading source of greenhouse gases.
Scientific warnings have become steadily more compelling. The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to rise. Eleven of the twelve warmest years recorded since 1850 have occurred since 1995. The UK’s Stern Report and studies by the UN show that if present trends continue much longer the costs of stopping or reversing them will rise dramatically; meanwhile we may expect dangerous climate-related natural disasters more and more often.
The Bali Agreement
The climate change conference held on the Indonesian island of Bali in December 2007 marked the start of negotiations for an extended Kyoto Protocol. The meeting painfully agreed on a two-year negotiating “road map” leading to a new international climate change agreement by December 2009.
The agreement includes several measures for the developed countries to speed up the transfer of clean technology and provide funds to help the developing countries to control their greenhouse gas emissions and to protect their forests, the “carbon sinks”.
Emissions Reduction Targets
The most contentious issues concern commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The agreement recognises that "deep cuts in global emissions will be required" to avoid the dangers of climate change. And it commits developed nations to make emissions reductions that are "measurable, reportable and verifiable", and "nationally appropriate", similar to the original Kyoto Protocol. Developing nations will be expected to take “measurable, reportable and verifiable” actions, but not necessarily emissions reductions, “in the context of sustainable development”.
The coming battles will be over which countries will accept quantified, binding targets for emissions reductions, and how large the reductions will be.
The European Union believes legally binding targets are essential to the ultimate goal of controlling climate change. Since the Bali meeting European leaders approved a timetable to reduce emissions to 20 percent below 1990 levels, by 2020, regardless of the Kyoto negotiations, and by 30 percent if other countries make similar commitments.
The Climate Change Bill
Individual countries have also made progress. The UK “Climate Change Bill” expected to become law in 2008 requires CO2 emissions to fall by 26-32 percent by 2020 and by 60 percent by 2050, with legally binding monitoring and reporting procedures. Considering the UK’s 15 percent reduction since 1990, this is perhaps the most credible commitment yet by one of the world’s leading sources of greenhouse gases.
With these commitments in place, the future of the Kyoto process lies in the hands of the world’s two largest sources of greenhouse gases, China and the USA. Neither accepts the principle of externally negotiated emissions reduction targets.
The Chinese government points to its low level of emissions per head, says it will not allow other countries to interfere with its economic growth and continues to commission new coal-burning power stations at an unprecedented rate.
The US government accepts the need to control emissions and has systems and procedures in place to do so; but it measures its emissions-cutting performance in terms of its declining “energy intensity” - energy relative to economic output - rather than total emissions output. Improved energy intensity can still lead to a rise in overall emissions.
International Climate Change Initiatives
Other international initiatives for controlling climate change include the US-led "big emitters" process, the G8 and the Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate. But none of these is nearly as comprehensive as the Kyoto Protocol and none incorporates commitments to reduce the total volume of greenhouse gas emissions. At worst they may serve as distracting side-shows that risk undermining the Kyoto process.
Expect tough confrontations within and between the EU, China and the USA in 2008 and 2009. If these three cannot resolve their differences and agree on a new and stronger version of the Kyoto Protocol, look forward to a critically dangerous cycle of climate change over the coming decades.
